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The forecast of the European Central Bank assumes that the oil price will be $81.8 per barrel in 2024, $71.8 per barrel in 2025, $70.1 per barrel in 2026 and $69.2 per barrel in 2027.Central Economic Work Conference: Deepen the comprehensive reform of capital market investment and financing, and open up the blocking points of medium and long-term funds entering the market. The Central Economic Work Conference was held in Beijing from December 11 to 12. The meeting proposed to give play to the traction role of economic system reform and promote the implementation of landmark reform measures. High-quality completion of the deepening and upgrading of state-owned enterprise reform, the introduction of private economy promotion law. Carry out special actions to standardize law enforcement involving enterprises. Formulate guidelines for the construction of a unified national market. Strengthen supervision and promote the healthy development of platform economy. Make overall plans to promote the reform of the fiscal and taxation system and increase local independent financial resources. Deepen the comprehensive reform of investment and financing in the capital market, open up the blocking points of medium and long-term funds entering the market, and enhance the inclusiveness and adaptability of the capital market system.Analyst Randow: The change in the wording of the European Central Bank shows that the ECB Committee has discussed the neutral interest rate. Otherwise, how can they decide what is restrictive and what is lenient? I am curious about what Lagarde will say next.

European Central Bank President Lagarde: We must be very cautious. European Central Bank President Lagarde: We must be very cautious because service prices and wages are rising rapidly. Financial difficulties are self-created uncertainties.Apple's iOS 18.2 integrates ChatGPT or helps the future sales of iPhone 17. Citigroup maintains a "buy" rating. Citibank pointed out that the iOS 18.2 update released by Apple basically meets expectations and predicts that there will be more highlights in future updates. In the detailed analysis, Atif Malik, an analyst at Citigroup, said that some basic functions of Siri in the latest system version have been taken over by ChatGPT, but this did not affect his view on the phased introduction of Apple Intelligence functions. He thought that this strategy would not significantly change the difference between the update cycle of iPhone 16/17 and the previous cycle. Malik maintains a "Buy" rating on Apple and a target price of $255. For the future, Malik is optimistic about the update of iPhone 17, and predicts that Apple will achieve 227 million units, 246 million units and 253 million units in 2024, 2025 and 2026 respectively.The Dow opened up 0.04%, the S&P 500 fell 0.2%, the Nasdaq fell 0.4% and Adobe fell 10.4%, and the fiscal year performance guidance fell short of expectations. General Dynamics fell 2.8% and was bearish by institutions. Uber rose by 3.5%, and its volume dropped by nearly 6% yesterday. CFO said that the mobile business will grow steadily. Jinshan Cloud rose 2.5%, and UBS sharply raised its target price to $12.5.

The yield of two-year treasury bonds once fell by 4 basis points to 1.92%, the lowest since December 3.World Meteorological Organization: The possibility of La Nina in the next three months is more than 50%. The latest forecast released by the World Meteorological Organization on the 11th shows that the possibility of La Nina in the next three months is more than 50%. It is expected that the intensity of La Nina will be weak and the duration will be short. According to the introduction of the World Meteorological Organization, the current El Niñ o/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index is in a neutral state, which is neither El Niñ o nor La Nina. According to the forecast, from December 2024 to February 2025, the possibility of changing from the current neutral state to La Nina phenomenon is 55%. The forecast also shows that from February to April 2025, the possibility of returning to neutral state is 55%. (Xinhua News Agency)Central Economic Work Conference: Keep the RMB exchange rate basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level. The Central Economic Work Conference was held in Beijing from December 11th to 12th. The meeting proposed to implement a moderately loose monetary policy. Give full play to the dual functions of the total amount and structure of monetary policy tools, reduce the RRR and interest rates in a timely manner, maintain sufficient liquidity, and match the scale of social financing and the growth of money supply with the expected goals of economic growth and overall price level. Keep the RMB exchange rate basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level. Explore and expand the macro-prudential and financial stability functions of the central bank, innovate financial instruments, and maintain the stability of the financial market.